As the battle of wills and might between
Russia and the west over the fate of Ukraine unfolds, there is one key fact to
bear in mind: Putin has never
lost a war. During past conflicts in Chechnya, Georgia, Syria and Crimea over
his two decades in power, Putin succeeded by giving his armed forces clear,
achievable military objectives that would allow him to declare victory,
credibly, in the eyes of the Russian people and a wary, watching world. His
latest initiative in Ukraine is unlikely to be any different.
Despite months of military build-up along
Ukraine's borders and repeated warnings from the Biden administration that an
incursion could happen at any time, the February 24 pre-dawn bombing campaign
that kicked off Europe's first land war in decades seemed to come as a surprise
to many Ukrainians. In major cities across a country the size of the state of
Texas, stunned citizens, lulled into complacency by their president's repeated
reassurances that Russia would not invade, watched and listened to the sound of
thunderous explosions targeting Ukrainian military bases, airports and command
and control centers. Within 24 hours, the conflict spread rapidly, with Russian
tanks and troops moving swiftly toward Kyiv, the capital, and fighting around
Chernobyl, the site of the disastrous 1986 nuclear reactor meltdown. Shock and
awe, Russian style.
Despite repeated warnings that an invasion was imminent, many Ukrainians were shocked by the arrival of Russian troops.
In an instant, Russian President Putin's
invasion of Ukraine destroyed the post Cold War security order in Europe—one
centered, to Russia's fury, by an often-expanding NATO alliance. Analysts expect that, once Kyiv falls,
the military aggression will give way to a political settlement that puts a
Russia-friendly government in place. By February 25, Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelensky was considering an invitation from Moscow to hold
"neutrality" talks in neighboring Belarus. If those talks happen, Putin
will then be able to pull back troops and end the conflict—while having dealt
the West a humiliating blow.
And that, military and Russia experts agree,
may be the real point.
Ukraine, of course, is not a NATO member; the
possibility that it might join the Alliance some day, as other countries that
were once part of the old Soviet bloc have done, is a key issue in the current
conflict. Putin's actions, a brazen defiance in the face of repeated warnings
and threats of sanctions from U.S. President Joe Biden and western allies, now make it
a certainty, if it wasn't before, that membership will never happen. Putin's
aggression will also serve as a stark warning to countries formerly part of the
Soviet Union of the possible repercussions of getting too cozy with the West.
The post Soviet status quo in Eastern Europe
was one "that [Putin] never accepted," says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor
in chief of Russia in Global Affairs, a Moscow-based foreign policy
journal. "It ate at him. He believes Russia was treated [by the West] as a
second class citizen after the Soviet Union fell."
Now, western diplomats and intelligence
officials believe, Putin seeks to decapitate the western-leaning leadership in
Kyiv headed by Zelensky and replace it with a government that will be loyal to
"the new Tsar," as former Estonian President Toomas Ilves calls
Putin. That could happen, U.S. intelligence officials tell Newsweek,
within days. Putin does not want, nor does he need, to occupy the entire
country to accomplish his greater goals, intelligence analysts and officials
say. As Ilves puts it, "He wants a puppet state like Belarus,"
another former Soviet province just north of Ukraine, and from which troops
poured into Ukraine as the Russian bombing ramped up. With a new reality on the
ground in Eastern Europe, Ilves continues, "Putin then wants to rewrite
the security rules of the road between him and NATO."
Ukraine itself appears to share at least part of that view. A statement from Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine's presidential chief of staff, and shared with Newsweek by Ukraine's embassy in Washington, outlined what Kyiv suspected were Moscow's goals. "The Office of the President of Ukraine believes the Russian federation has two tactical goals—to seize territories and attack the legitimate political leadership of Ukraine in order to spread chaos and [to] install a marionette government that would sign a peace deal on bilateral relations with Russia," Podolyak said.
A United States that thought it was pivoting
to Asia, and focusing on China—a country that is its preeminent rival going
forward—has now been dragged back to Eastern Europe, where for centuries so
much blood has been spilled. Putin now has the world's full, undivided
attention, in the same way that every Secretary General in the Soviet era did.
In chilling televised remarks after the invasion had begun, Putin said, "whoever
tries to interfere [in Ukraine] should know that Russia's response will be
immediate, and will lead to such consequences that you have never experienced
in your history."
Russia is now back in the limelight, a nation
that is demonstrating, with a display of military might, that it remains a
Great Power. Which is precisely where Putin wants his nation to be. He believes
Russia should at all times command respect from the rest of the world,
"and when it doesn't command respect, it should command fear," as
Lukyanov of Russia in Global Affairs puts it.
Mission accomplished. As Rose Gottemoeller,
former deputy secretary general of NATO and a long time Russia watcher
characterized it recently on the CBS podcast Intelligence Matters, "This is
[Putin's] 'look at me' moment."
The
West Responds
Within hours of the invasion, the United
States and its allies responded by sharply ratcheting up economic sanctions but
it's unclear whether the moves will deter the Russian leader. In a speech
announcing the response, Biden said more than half of the West's high tech
exports to Russia would be slashed, "degrading their industrial
capacity," and hurting industries like aerospace and shipbuilding. He's
also freezing the U.S. assets of four additional Russian banks, including VTB,
the country's second largest financial institution, whose CEO is very close to
Putin. "This is going to impose severe costs on the Russian economy, both
immediately and over time," Biden said.
The following day, the White House announced
it would join the European Union in
implementing sanctions against Putin personally. The Russian President is
widely thought to be one of the world's richest men, allegedly hiding much of
his wealth in shell companies in various tax havens throughout the world.
How effective the sanctions will be is
unclear. Putin, for his part, believes he has effectively made his country
sanctions-proof. Russia has over $630 billion in hard currency reserves,
and rakes in $14 billion per month in oil and gas exports. As Russia's
ambassador to Sweden, Viktor Tatarintsev, told Swedish
newspaper Aftonbladet days before the invasion began, when the West
ramped up threats of financial penalties in a futile effort to prevent military
action, "Excuse my language, but we don't give a shit about your
sanctions."
Biden, in his remarks the day the invasion
began, said he believes Putin may have brought himself a world of trouble by
invading Ukraine. "History has shown time and again how swift gains in
territory give way to grinding occupation, acts of mass civil disobedience and strategic
dead ends," he said. And in fact, thousands of Ukrainian civilians have
been training as part of newly formed "territorial defense
organizations" set up in order to resist the Russians.
But U.S. intelligence officials privately do
not share Biden's optimism about "mass disobedience." One official
who spoke to Newsweek on background because he is not authorized to speak on
the record said, "After the government in Kyiv is dismantled, there will
be no opposition within Ukraine for us to support militarily."
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